Modeling Project's Scopes for Conceptual Cost Estimating

摘要

The availability of a comprehensive and reliable definition of the scope of a project in its early planning stages is widely recognized by practitioners as a key factor for conceptual cost estimating. In this article, a project scope modeling methodology, based on the effective reutilization of historical projects' scopes, and on the application of the case-based reasoning approach (CBR), is proposed. This methodology helps to develop a new project's scope by finding and reusing the most relevant information from historical scopes. The validation of the proposed methodology was carried out through its use in estimating the cost of 17 real construction projects, already constructed, and whose final costs were known. This application of the methodology produced a sufficiently detailed and accurate cost estimate for each project. Also, the scope generated by the methodology allows the estimation of the cost of a new project with an acceptable level of accuracy, and provides a reasonable work breakdown structure that can be used for different planning purposes. This article was first presented as EST.14, at the 2010 AACE International Annual Meeting, at Atlanta, GA.