EURO ZONE

摘要

Concerns over industry and deflation - and, therefore, the possibility of recession - mark this month's outlook. Despite a 1.2% (m-o-m) gain in retail sales in August and signs that unemployment is gradually easing, the 2014 consumption forecast remains at 0.7% on the back of weak inflation. The headline CPI rose by only 0.3% (m-o-m) in September while the y-o-y rate was at 0.4%. The ECB plans to buy private sector assets in orderto stimulate lending, but more action is needed if prices continue to fall. Meanwhile, German production collapsed by 4.0% (m-o-m) in August, accentuating concerns over the Euro area's largest economy. The IMF has urged Germany to reduce its budget surplus in order to help support growth, not just at home but in the region as a whole.