FRANCE

摘要

The final Q2 GDP release showed that, instead of flat growth overthe quarter as initially announced, GDP dipped by-0.1% (q-o-q). Household consumption also dropped by -0.1 %. This was mostly due to payback following strong consumption growth of 0.7% in Q1, on the back of bookings for the 2016 Euro football championships. For Q3, the Banque de France predicts a modest 0.3% (q-o-q) pickup, and 1.4% for GDP for 2016 as a whole. The government's 2017 budget earmarks 1.5% growth for this year and next, while the consensus points to 1.3% and 1.2%. In Q2, the y-o-y growth rate stood at 1.3%, and there have been some signs of modest growth. Manufacturing orders recorded disappointing outturns in June and July, especially June which saw a -4.4% (m-o-m) payback following May's huge naval order. However, manufacturing production rebounded massively, by 2.2% (m-o-m) in August - unusual when some factories see holiday shutdowns-but this followed a-0.2% decline in July and -1.1% contraction in June. The hope is that the global economic climate may be firming. September's manufacturing PMI reported a seven-month high, although it was below 50, indicating that activity in the sector is still declining. The steady fall in our panel's 2016 production forecast has halted this month, however. On the services front, September's PMI rose at its fastest pace since June 2015 amid rising incoming business and staffing.