UNITED STATES

摘要

The third release of Q2 GDP upgraded growth from a previously-reported 1.1% (q-o-q annualized) to 1.4%, almost doubling the 0.8% pace reported in Q1. However, for the first half of 2016, growth rose by only 1.1 %. The good news is that real disposable income and personal consumption continued supporting activity. Moreover, the decline in business investment (for a third consecutive quarter) appears to be ebbing. Investment fell by -1.0%, up from a -3.4% drop in Q1. Going into Q3, the impetus behind growth may be strengthening. Stronger exports, consumption and more positive capital spending have all contributed to keeping our panel's 2016 GDP forecast at 1.5% this month. On the export side, the trade balance actually worsened in August, from US$-39.5bn in July to US$-40.7bn, but this was due to higher imports of capital goods and record-high spending on services from abroad. The former signals some good news for business spending, while the latter was boosted by a one-off factor: broadcasting from the Rio Olympics. Sales of consumer goods, particularly Pharmaceuticals and industry, helped to buoy exports in August. Despite the dollar's relative strength, export demand may be gaining traction, thanks to relatively better global conditions compared with the start of the year, as well as recent weakness in the US dollar.