UNITED KINGDOM

摘要

Q3 GDP expanded at a resilient rate of 0.5% (q-o-q) and 2.3% (y-o-y), respectively, defying expectations of a marked slowdown following the Brexit vote in June. Chancellor Philip Hammond welcomed the news, stating that "the fundamentals of the UK economy are strong". The breakdown showed output in services rose by 0.8% (q-o-q), above the 0.6% rise in Q2. The PMI services reading forOctober also accelerated, raising hopes that momentum can be maintained through Q4 2016. Activity in the other main sectors (agriculture, construction and production) declined, however, highlighting the reliance on services to propel GDP growth. Construction dropped by 1.4% (q-o-q) in Q3, its largest decline for four years. The threat of businesses holding back on new projects and grappling with rising costs suggests little optimism for a near-term rebound in investment. Manufacturing production tumbled by 1% (q-o-q). Improving export demand has been offset by escalating input costs. These inflationary pressures are gradually filtering into the economy following sterling's significant drop in value. Consumer prices advanced by 1 % (y-o-y) in September and could soar by 2.5% on average in 2017 according to the latest consensus. Price rises appear to have had little bearing on consumers' spending patterns so far. Retail sales volumes in Q3 rose at their highest rate since Q42014. Many low-paid workers have been supported by the introduction of the "national living wage" this year, although real wages could be driven down by an inflation surge.