Our Significant Changes analysis of the government budget deficit outlook (in local currency terms and as a % of nominal GDP) shows the evolution of the 2017 consensus. In the US, the budget deficit projections for 2016 and 2017 are at similar levels. The UK budget shortfall has risen markedly since June's Brexit vote. The chancellor has loosened his stance on fiscal tightening amid forecasts of weaker economic growth. France and Spain are struggling to adhere to European Commission fiscal rules as their deficits breach the 3% of GDP ceiling. Germany's surplus may be reduced by higher public spending in the run up to next year's elections. Canada's government has pressed ahead with its stimulus-led approach to boost GDP growth. This includes higher infrastructure spending and tax breaks.
展开▼
