CANADA

摘要

Output-based GDP growth accelerated by +0.6% (m-o-m) in January but fell by 0.1% in February, ending a run of four straight monthly gains. Still, given that last year was hard-hit by a severe downturn in natural resource activity, this more recent pickup was indicative of a firmer rebound going into 2016. Looking at the February breakdown, the fall in activity was led by the goods-producing industries which dropped by -0.6%, pulled down by a 0.8% decline in both manufacturing and mining, quarrying, oil & gas extraction. As usual, the raw material industries continue to exhibit volatility; agricultural output also fell over the month (by -1.3%). The downturn in manufacturing was triggered mainly by a 1.8% contraction in durables output. Recent gains in the Canadian dollar (as well as a lacklustre global outlook) may also be impacting on the manufacturing sector. Industrial production fell by 0.7% (m-o-m), but the drops in both manufacturing and industry as a whole failed to override strong January increases. Indeed, many observers believe that Q1 growth is already rebounding noticeably from last year and our panel has upgraded its G D P outlook accordingly. The Bank of Canada also lifted its GDP forecasts for this year from 1.4% to 1.7% - in line with our panel's assessment - and from 2.3% to 2.4% next year.