UNITED STATES

摘要

Q1 GDP managed only 0.5% (q-o-q annualized) growth, less than half the pace of the previous quarter's modest 1.4% rate. The news was not completely unexpected, given financial market sell-offs earlier this year as well as uncertainty over the global outlook. However, several drivers of activity struggled, according to the advance release. Businesses once again chose to work through existing inventory rather than ramp up production in the face of soft demand, hence a second straight quarter of declining business investment which fell by 5.8% (q-o-q annualized) compared with a 2.1 % decline in Q4 2015. Exporters have been adversely affected by the strong US dollar relative to other currencies, and consequently manufacturing has been in the doldrums. Indeed, net trade subtracted from GDP growth in Q1. Low oil prices continue to eat into US oil producers' profits, although there have been signs recently of a firming in crude prices. Our panel's 2016 forecasts for investment and pre-tax profits continue to be downgraded this month.