JAPAN

摘要

As commentators eagerly await to see if the economy was able to avoid another recession in Q1, general sentiment suggests that the government's three-pronged Abenomics programme is failing to win over dissenters. Unemployment is still much lower than earlier in the decade at 3.2%, and the ratio of job openings to job seekers has reached 1.30 (its highest level in over 20 years). However, a 1.1% (y-o-y) decline in retail sales in March indicates that private consumption remains sluggish. Real household spending during the same month slowed to +0.5% (m-o-m), from 1.7% in February. With Q2 consumption likely to have been negatively impacted by last month's earthquake, private consumption expectations have faltered again. Meanwhile, dips in both manufacturing and service PMIs in April highlight the instability which exists in these two industries, despite a pick-up in March industrial production by +3.6% (m-o-m). Our panel expects GDP to increase by only 0.5% this year.