UNITED KINGDOM

摘要

Lacklustre 0.4% (q-o-q) GDP growth in Q1 2016 has been partly attributed to uncertainty before next month's referendum on the UK's future in the EU, as well as external concerns over global growth and financial market volatility. The uncertainty has destabilised business confidence according to the closely-watched ICAEW index which plunged to a4-year low in April, falling to levels last seen when the economy almost slipped into recession in 2012. Firms are said to be pausing investment decisions and hiring projects until the UK's EU future has been decided. The Q1 expansion again highlighted the reliance on the services sector, which increased by 0.6% (q-o-q). Industrial production (-0.4%), construction (-0.9%) and agriculture (-0.1%) all contracted. Manufacturing output slumped by -0.4% (q-o-q), extending that sector's dismal outlook. Moreover, the headline manufacturing PMI tumbled in April into contractionary territory for the first time in over 3 years. Meanwhile, the services PMI also fell back in April and, consequently, this has reined in GDP expectations. Production has also been downgraded.