ITALY

摘要

The economy grew by 0.8% on average last year. While this marks an improvement after 3 years of recession, GDP growth lost steam throughout the year and increased by just 0.1 % (q-o-q) in Q4 2015, having expanded by 0.4% (q-o-q) back in Q1. The 2016 GDP consensus forecast has consequently fallen to 1.1%. The OECD is even less optimistic, slashing its latest 2016 projection to just 1 % from 1.4%. While household consumption (+0.9% in 2015) helped to underpin the recovery, it grew modestly last year, as did fixed investment (+0.8%) and production (+1.0%). Stalling GDP growth would likely make the government's pledge of reducing the public debt (which has widened in each of the last eight years) even more difficult to achieve. The government's current 2016 GDP projection of 1.6% seems somewhat optimistic given the loss of momentum. Even hitting the budget deficit target of 2.4% of GDP might not be enough to prevent debt from rising. The budget, meanwhile, is still facing opposition from the European Commission, which has criticised the planned pace of deficit reduction.