JAPAN

摘要

National accounts data for Q4 2015 revealed an altogether disappointing performance, with GDP contracting by -0.3% (q-o-q) due to a -0.9% (q-o-q) fall in private consumption. In y-o-y terms, output was up by 0.8%, with the full-year growth figure for 2015 coming in at 0.5% This was an improvement on the -0.1% contraction in 2014, but that figure was as a result of the April 2014 sales tax hike. On the back of the Bank of Japan's implementation of negative interest rates last month, initial signs are that consumers are still reluctant to spend their disposable incomes, with recent reports suggesting that household safes are rapidly becoming a genuine alternative to bank deposits. Despite the fact that figures for January showed that retail sales had declined for a third consecutive month by -0.1% (y-o-y), policymakers can at least take heart from upbeat industrial production data and also from a booming tourism industry. Foreign arrivals for last year totalled 19.7mn, and data for January showed a 52% (y-o-y) increase in visitors from the previous year.