UNITED KINGDOM

摘要

The UK's future in the EU, which will be decided on June 23, has clouded the economic outlook in recent months (see more in our special survey on Brexit on pages 30-31). In recent data developments, GDP growth slowed to 0.4% (q-o-q) in Q1, from 0.6% in Q4 2015 as uncertainty weighed on business sentiment. Business investment contracted for a second consecutive quarter, albeit at a less pronounced rate than in Q4. The Q1 2016 GDP breakdown did show, however, that domesticdemand powered on as household consumption rose by 0.7% (q-o-q). With unemployment and inflation remaining low, spending in the retail sector has thrived. Retail sales increased by 4.3% (y-o-y) and 1.3% (m-o-m) in April after a revised 0.5% fall in March. Household goods sales may have received a boost from asurge in mortgage lending in March as buyers beat the stamp duty rise which came into effect on April 1. Furthermore, employment in the jobs market reached a record 31.5mn between January and March, keeping the unemployment rate at 5.1 %. Spending supported the services sector in Q1, as services output climbed by 0.6% (q-o-q). Production tumbled, though, led by a 0.4% fall in manufacturing. Despite a 2.3% (m-o-m) rise in April's manufacturing activity (the biggest rise for almost four years), the weak manufacturing PMI in May indicates payback later in Q2. Our panel's 2016 production forecast has dropped below zero this month.