EURO ZONE

摘要

The UK Brexit vote (see pages 12-13 for more) has impacted the Euro zone GDP outlook, especially forecasts for 2017. Its GDP growth has been downgraded from 1.6% last month to 1.3%. So far, though, the Euro markets have not seen any significant financial backlash from the news, pointing to a lack of any "systemic failure" for the moment. The euro currency has dropped against the US dollar, but only by around 2%. At present, it is still too early to assess the impact of Brexit on the Euro area's major macroeconomic indicators. Some observers have suggested that the cost of Brexit uncertainty and prolonged withdrawal could knock about 0.5%-points from Euro zone GDP over the next three years. Concerns have recently been heightened about the liquidity of some regional banks in the wake of this crisis. However, industrial production rose by 1.1% (m-o-m) in April following a-0.7%fall in March. Looking ahead, German production and manufacturing orders in May disappointed (production fell by an unexpectedly large -1.3% m-o-m). Elsewhere, euro-wide retail sales were firm, doubling the 0.2% (m-o-m) pace seen in April to 0.4% in May which left the y-o-y rate at a solid 1.6%. June PMIs for manufacturing and services show little severe fluctuation for now. Price pressures in industry are deflationary, though, highlighting weak regional inflation as a whole.