CANADA

摘要

After a-0.1%(m-o-m) showing in February and-0.2% fall in March, GDP recovered a bit in April. Growth started Q2 at +0.1% which helped to bring the y-o-y rate up from 1.2% in March to 1.5%. April's modest uptick was due to gains in manufacturing output (on the goods-producing side) and the public sector (on the services side). Manufacturing rose by 0.4% (m-o-m) following declines of -0.6% and -0.5% in February and March, respectively. Non-durables production helped to drive output. Elsewhere, construction (which has also struggled in recent months) was flat m-o-m. However, output in the resource industries (namely mining, quarrying, oil & gas extraction) fell by -1.4% on the back of a -2.4% tumble in extractive oil & gas as a result of maintenance shutdowns. Despite the positive start to Q2 GDP, the quarter will likely be hit by further weakness in resources output, stemming from the May forest fires in Alberta which shutdown around 40% of oil sands production. The hope is that Q3 will rebound but with Brexit, new uncertainties have been introduced into global and financial fundamentals. April was a positive month for factory sales and new orders which expanded by 1.0% (m-o-m) and a massive 7.9% over the month, respectively. Our panel's industrial production forecasts have seen another dip this month, though, as the drag from the wildfires and low oil prices dents the energy industry further. GDP expectations remain muted, especially with soft domestic demand.