FRANCE

摘要

The final Q1 national accounts showed a modest increase in the y-o-y outturn for GDP. Growth expanded by 1.4% in Q4 2015 and Q1 2016, instead of the 1.3% figure initially announced. Moreover, Q1 household consumption was revised up from 1.5% (y-o-y) to 1.8%, confirming the strong contribution to activity from domestic final sales. Business investment was especially upbeat, rising by 4.8% (y-o-y) in the first three months of this year, from an already-firm 3.9% in the previous quarter. Companies have benefited from a €40bn tax break this year while consumers have seen low fuel costs. On the consumption front, retail commerce started Q2 on a relatively firm note, with purchases excluding autos rising by 0.3% (m-o-m) in April compared with a 0.4% fall in March. Auto sales surged by +0.8% over the month. However, domestic consumption of goods was muted in both April and May. After a 1.1% (m-o-m) jump in March, it registered -0.1 % and -0.7% in the following two months. On the upside, June's retail sector PMI hit an 8-month high of 51.0 although the index was down year over year. The mostly-positive Q2 spending news has left our panel's 2016 consumption forecast up from last month.