UNITED STATES

摘要

The third and final release of Q1 GDP again revised up the growth outturn, from 0.8% (q-o-q annualized) in the second report to 1.1%. This was noticeably closer to the pace of activity at the end of last year (of 1.4%). Growth in real final sales supported GDP despite a small downward revision to personal consumption, from a 1.9% advance in the previous report to 1.5%. Net exports also offered a 0.1%-point contribution to activity. Still, this is not enough to significantly change our panel's GDP outlook for this year which remains just below 2.0%. if anything, global risks to the US outlook have increased in the wake of the UK Brexit vote. This has possibly encouraged the US Federal Reserve to take that rate hike off the table until later this year or possibly 2017.