CANADA

摘要

Following September's sharp 0.5% (m-o-m) drop in output-based GDP, activity was flat going into October as both goods-producing industries and services stalled. In y-o-y terms, GDP growth went from a 1.0% advance in August to a negligible 0.1% rise in September before registering a contraction of -0.2% in October. On the upside, mining, quarrying, oil & gas extraction recovered from the previous month's -4.7% (m-o-m) collapse (due in part to production difficulties and maintenanceshutdowns). However, the+0.7% increase recorded was nowhere near enough to offset the massive loss in extractive production in recent months. Canada has been especially hard hit by the decline in energy and commodity prices, particularly the oil export industry. With Brent having dropped further in recent weeks (see page 27), chances of a near-term rebound have been dashed. The current lows are now the new normal for the international commodity markets, and Canada's natural resource sectors are already retrenching accordingly. Unfortunately, this is threatening the faltering recovery. After suffering a technical recession in the first half of 2015, Q3 saw a 0.6% (q-o-q) rebound. However, Q4 appears to have started on a shaky footing, with manufacturing in October falling by -0.3% (m-o-m) following a 1.0% decline in the previous month. The industrial production outlook has been sharply downgraded.