UNITED KINGDOM

摘要

Chancellor George Osborne has warned that the economic recovery could stutter in 2016, as downside risks from China and plunging oil prices weigh on global GDP growth. 2015 growth looks set to just miss the chancellor's 2.4% target, as GDP revisions saw Q3 downgraded to 0.4% (q-o-q) from 0.5%, while the Q2 expansion fell to 0.5% from 0.7%. The services sector expansion was revised down to 0.6% (q-o-q) in Q3, while the manufacturing and construction sectors declined, highlighting the imbalances within the economy. Our panel's 2015 GDP view has dropped to 2.3%, matching the growth rate expected in 2016. Manufacturing output has been hit by the lacklustre export performance. The trade deficit climbed to -£8.7bn in Q3 and contributed to a large current account deficit of -£17.5bn, the same as the Q2 figure. Concern over the deficit may edgeupas the referendum on EU membership comes into focus later this year. A Brexit could ignite fears over the external position, particularly if overseas investors dim their demand for UK assets.