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机译:欧元区

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摘要

The Q3 expenditure breakdown confirmed steady 0.3% (q-o-q) growth for a second straight quarter. It was also a 0.3% showing for consumption while investment rose by 0.2%. Going into Q4, November's composite PMI suggests solid growth ahead, but the economy still faces political and economic headwinds. The Italian referendum ended in defeat for PM Renzi's constitutional proposals (page 15), representing an anti-establishment sanction by a populace tired of austerity and high unemployment. Italy's situation is by no means unique; the European Commission recently urged governments to be more fiscally accommodating. Meanwhile, inflation remained far short of the ECB's target of just under 2%, managing only 0.5% (y-o-y) in November. As expected, the ECB extended its bond-buying program at its December 8 meeting through to December 2017, but will start to taper the size of purchases from April onwards (from €80bn to €60bn). The markets have reacted with a bond sell-off.
机译:第三季度支出细分确认连续第二个季度稳定增长0.3%。消费数据也显示为0.3%,而投资增长了0.2%。进入第四季度,11月的综合PMI值表明未来将有强劲增长,但经济仍将面临政治和经济逆风。意大利公投因总理伦齐的宪法提议而失败(第15页),代表了厌倦了紧缩和高失业率的民众对反建制的制裁。意大利的情况绝不是唯一的。欧盟委员会最近敦促各国政府在财政上要更加宽松。同时,通货膨胀率仍远低于欧洲央行设定的略低于2%的目标,11月份的通胀率仅为0.5%。正如预期的那样,欧洲央行在其12月8日的会议上将其债券购买计划延长至2017年12月,但将从4月开始逐渐缩减购买规模(从800亿欧元增至600亿欧元)。市场对债券的抛售做出了反应。

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  • 来源
    《Consensus Forecasts》 |2016年第12期|18-19|共2页
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