Resilience modeling of engineering systems using dynamic object-oriented Bayesian network approach

摘要

Resilience is defined as the ability of a system to efficiently recover from a disruptive event. For an engineered system, it is dependent on the system performance and time. In this study, a new resilience assessment methodology is proposed. The methodology considers an engineered system to be characterized with three resilience capacities of absorption, adaptation, and restoration. These capacities are modeled as a function of time using dynamic object-oriented Bayesian network formalism. The application of the methodology is demonstrated using the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power accident. The analysis showed that the adaptive capacity contributed most to the system resilience, followed by the absorptive capacity and the restorative capacity. The applicability of the proposed formalism has demonstrated that the concept of resilience is highly valuable for engineering design, operation, and emergency planning.