Prediction of gas hydrate saturation using machine learning and optimal set of well-logs

摘要

Resistivity and acoustic logs are widely used to estimate gas hydrate saturation in various sedimentary systems using one of the two popular methods ((1) acoustic velocity and (2) electrical resistivity), but the limitations of these two methods are often overlooked, which include (ⅰ) well-specific calibration of empirical exponents in the electrical resistivity method, (ⅱ) assumption of known pore morphology for gas hydrates in the acoustic velocity method, and (ⅲ) presence of unknown mineralogy and bulk modulus terms in the acoustic velocity method. NMR-density porosity-derived gas hydrate saturation based on the analysis of the transverse magnetization relaxation time (72) is considered the most precise method, but acquisition of NMR-based logs is limited at relatively recent drilled sites; additionally, its use in conventional oil and gas reservoirs is not that common due to higher cost and operational deployment limitations associated with acquiring NMR well-logs. This study proposes a new method that predicts gas hydrate saturation (S_h) for any well using porosity, bulk density, and compressional wave (P wave) velocity well-logs with neural network (or stochastic gradient descent regression) without any well-specific calibration and/or other aforementioned shortcomings of the existing methods. The method is developed by examining the underlying dependency between S_h and different combinations of well-logs, chosen from 6 routine logs, with 12 different machine learning (ML) algorithms. The accuracy of the proposed method in predicting S_h, is ～ 84%, which is better than the accuracy of seismic and electrical resistivity methods (≤ 75%) per the results reported by three different studies. The robustness of the method in the specific case of permafrost-associated gas hydrates is demonstrated with well-log data from two wells drilled on the Alaska North Slope.