The damping accumulated grey model and its application

摘要

In this paper, a modified grey prediction model with damping trend factor is proposed. The proposed damping accumulated generating operator is an optimized form of the traditional first-order accumulated generating operator. By introducing the damping parameter into the accumulation process, the new information is given greater weight in the data pre-processing. Compared with other data generation techniques, the proposed damping accumulation can flexibly adjust the prediction trend of the grey model. Then, the heuristic algorithm was used to determine the value of the damping trend parameter from the latest data. The feasibility and validity of the model are shown by four numerical examples. The predicted results show that the proposed modified grey model was superior to the other comparative models. The proposed damping accumulated generating operator can also be combined with other extended forms of the grey model. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.