Causes of the extreme snowfall anomaly over the northeast Tibetan plateau in early winter 2018

摘要

An extremely heavy snowfall event occurred in early winter (November-December) 2018 over the northeast of Tibetan Plateau (NTP), with snowfall amounts ranking the highest since 1961. It is necessary to better understand the causes and reveal the physical mechanism of this extreme snowfall event. In this article, the features of this extreme snowfall event and its possible linkage with atmospheric circulation anomalies, and sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly effects are analyzed. The results show that in early winter 2018, (1) there was a similar Eurasian teleconnection (EU) pattern in the mid-latitudes with a periodic strengthening of the Siberian High, which favored northern cold airflow into the NTP, providing the suitable temperature conditions for snowfall. (2) Low-latitude meridional and mid-latitude zonal water vapor transport were both significantly greater than normal, causing much more water vapor flow than normal into the NTP region through the western and southern boundaries, leading to the second highest net water vapor input since 1961 and creating sufficient continuous water vapor conditions for extreme snowfall. (3) The baroclinicity and the instability of the atmospheric circulation, accompanied by abnormal cold and warm advection and vertical movement over the NTP, provided the dynamic atmospheric conditions for the snowfall event. (4) Under the background of warm El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event and the positive phase of the Tropical Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) SST, the EU pattern initiated by the tele-influence of IOD mode dominated the midlatitude region across Eurasia continent. The positive anomalies of EU teleconnection over western Asia guided the heavy water vapor flow into the NTP through the western and southern boundaries, respectively. In addition, the effects of ENSO/IOD caused the northern Indian Ocean and northwest Pacific to be dominated by anticyclones, creating more northward water vapor transport from the tropical region. Accordingly, sufficient water vapor flowed into the NTP along the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau, providing the moisture conditions for the severe snowfall event.