Crime, apprehension and clearance rates: Panel data evidence from Canadian provinces

摘要

The Becker (1968) model of crime establishes the importance of the probability of apprehension as a key factor in a rational individual's decision to commit a crime. In this respect, most empirical studies based on US data have relied on variation in the number of police officers to estimate the impact of the probability of apprehension or capture. We measure the probability of apprehension by clearance rates and study their effects on crime rates, employing a panel of Canadian provinces from 1986 to 2005. OLS, GMM, GLS and IV estimates yield statistically significant elasticities of clearance rates, ranging from -0.2 to -0.4 for violent crimes and from -0.5 to -0.6 for property crimes. These findings reflect the importance of police force crime-solving productivity.