Why Microsoft's Cash Makes It a Bargain

摘要

Is it safe to buy Microsoft yet? If s certainly an odd thing to ask about a stock that's up 34,186% since its 1986 debut. And if it says more about my aversion to risk than it does about Microsoft, so be it. Cash is as easy to lose on Wall Street as it is rare to find on a sidewalk: Buyers of the stock four years ago have 50c on the dollar now. Still, with Microsoft near $25, its shares are getting hard to resist. In a minute, I'll explain my reasons why, but it's not because I have some special clue about Microsoft's fiscal third-quarter profit report, set for Apr. 22. Nor is it because the next version of Windows is sure to reignite the glory of 1996-2000, when net income quintupled. I'm simply betting that even amid such clear business risks as Linux, the stock offers a rich potential reward precisely because of where those wildly profitable years have put Microsoft today.