What Will the U.K. Do?

摘要

Prime Minister David Cameron has promised a vote by the end of 2017, though it may occur as early as summer 2016. He wants to stay in the EU but hopes to renegotiate the terms of membership. Analysts say he'll try to limit the benefits immigrants can claim within the first few years of their arrival in the U.K. He also wants some protection against further political integration with Europe. Regardless of the outcome, the runup to the vote will affect the economy, with HSBC analysts arguing in a recent report that the vote should be held sooner rather than later to limit the "potentially damaging uncertainty" surrounding it. "I would expect a negative impact," says Thomas Sampson, a specialist in trade at the London School of Economics. "It's fairly well established that where there's more uncertainty, businesses tend to delay investment."