Role of slope reliability analysis in landslide risk management

摘要

Progress in the use of qualitative and quantitative methods of landslide risk assessment is briefly reviewed. The use of a hazard-consequence matrix approach is highlighted and attention is then restricted to aspects of hazard assessment in which formal reliability concepts can be used. Widely accepted geotechnical and geological models must form the basis of credible hazard assessments under different environmental conditions. However, conventional deterministic methods of geotechnical analysis need to be supplemented by studies within a probabilistic framework which takes into consideration parameter variability and other uncertainties. Suggestions are made for using the "reliability index" in preference to the "factor of safety" in comprehensive procedures for landslide risk management.