Monitoring and statistical analysis of mine subsidence at three metal mines in China

摘要

Mine subsidence is a regional geological hazard in China. To evaluate whether a power law describes the frequency-size statistics of mine subsidence, as for earthquakes and floods, we studied the frequency-size statistics of mine subsidence at three metal mines in China (Jinchuan Nickel Mine, Sanshandao Gold Mine, and Jingerquan Nickel Mine). Data sets for these mines consisted of 1088, 345, and 101 Global Positioning System (GPS) monitoring points, covering monitoring periods of 14.5, 4, and 3.5 years, respectively. Although these mines had different geological and hydrological settings, mining methods, and stress fields, their noncumulative frequency-size distributions for subsidence and uplift events can be described using power laws. The subsidence power-law exponent for these three mines ranged from 1.20 to 1.67, 1.49 to 1.94, and 1.01 to 1.17, with mean values of 1.46, 1.76, and 1.09, respectively. The power-law scaling for each mine was valid over the range from 2 to 455 mm, 2 to 566 mm, and 2 to 277 mm, respectively; scaling was positively correlated with the power-law exponent. The frequency-size statistics for subsidence events having different time scales showed an identical power-law dependence. The power-law behavior of uplift events was similar to subsidence events. This power-law behavior, its underlying mechanisms, factors influencing the power-law exponent, and the threshold between normal and extreme subsidence events are discussed herein. We conclude that the power-law distribution of mine subsidence events reflects the scale invariance of the subsidence system. This has important practical applications for subsidence hazard assessment and subsidence event prediction.