Multivariate analysis of the risk for pulmonary complication after gastrointestinal surgery

摘要

AIM: To identify the risk factors for postoperative pulmonary complications (PPC) after gastrointestinal surgery. METHODS: A total of 1 002 patients undergoing gastrointestinal surgery in the Second Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-Sen University, during December 1999 and December 2003, were retrospectively studied. RESULTS: The overall incidence of PPC was 22.8% (228/ 1 002). Multivariate logistic analysis identified nine risk factors associated with PPC, including age odds ratio (OR = 1.040) history of respiratory diseases (OR = 2.976), serum albumin (OR = 0.954), chemotherapy 2 wk before operation (OR = 3.214), volume of preoperative erythrocyte transfusion (OR = 1.002), length of preoperative antibiotic therapy (OR = 1.072), intraoperative intratracheal intubation (OR = 1.002), nasogastric intubation (OR = 1.050) and postoperative mechanical ventilation (OR = 1.878). Logistic regression equation for predicting the risk of PPC was P(1) = 1/[1+e~(-(-3.488 + 0.039 x Y + 1.090 x Rd + 0.001 x Rbc - 0.047 x Alb + 0.002 x Lii + 0.049 x Lni + 0.630 x Lmv + 0.070 x Dat + 1.168 x Ct)) CONCLUSION: Old patients are easier to develop PPC.