AS TRADE WAR HEATS UP, LONG-TERM IMPACT IS ANYONE'S GUESS

摘要

When the Trump Administration imposed tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum in March, it kicked off one of the nation's most heated and far-reaching trade wars since the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930. That legislation, which was expanded by President Hoover to include more than 20,000 products across the agriculture and industrial sectors, is viewed historically as an abject failure and a prime reason for the sustained economic depression through the 1930s.Seven months into Trump's trade war, the jury is still out. The circumstances today are markedly different than 88 years ago, of course. The economy is strong. But America is no longer the global manufacturing powerhouse it once was, and the nation has operated a global trade deficit of $100 billion or more annually since the late 1990s (last year: $795 billion).Opponents of Trump's actions on trade argue that the policies are outmoded, shortsighted measures that undermine a free trade economy. Pundits in Trump's camp believe that any short-term hit to U.S. businesses is worth the potential long-term impact to the economy, particularly the manufacturing sector.