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Ricardo Reis~1 Progress in the study of short-run economic fluctuations seems to come in three stages. First, macroeconomists become excited by the arrival of a new theoretical approach, a new set of principles to organize knowledge, or some new modeling tools. Second come the refiners, who explore how to apply the idea to an increasing number of markets and to tease out all of its implications. Third, a synthesis emerges, bringing together the progress in different areas into one large model that tries to capture many features of an aggregate economy. This last stage is always technically challenging and involves considerable ingenuity at fine tuning models to match the subtleties of the data.
机译:Ricardo Reis〜1研究短期经济波动的研究似乎分三个阶段。首先,新的理论方法,组织知识的新原理或一些新的建模工具的出现使宏观经济学家感到兴奋。其次是精炼厂,他们探索如何将这一想法应用到越来越多的市场中,并弄清其所有含义。第三,出现了一种综合,将不同领域的进展汇聚为一个大型模型,试图抓住总体经济的许多特征。最后一个阶段始终在技术上具有挑战性,并且在微调模型上需要相当大的独创性以匹配数据的细微差别。

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