Commentary: The myth of nuclear deterrence in south Asia

摘要

It is almost four years since India and Pakistan conducted their first tit for tat nuclear tests. Since then the development of nuclear weapons in both countries has proceeded steadily. Today India and Pakistan are believed to have nuclear arsenals and delivery systems capable of destroying all the major cities and industrial centres of both countries. The protagonists of nuclear weapons in India and Pakistan claim that these weapons act as a deterrent against conventional armed conflict. But events in the past three years have put paid to this notion. In 1999 a major conflict erupted in Kargil, Kashmir, and the continued fighting in Kashmir has recently culminated in an unprecedented military stand off.