Look to the futures market to solve carbon tax conundrum:Ross Mckitrick

摘要

A carbon tax proposal has to answer two questions: where should it start, and how should the rate change over time. Since a low carbon tax coupled with reductions in income taxes would likely be neutral or mildly beneficial for the macroeconomy, it is conceivable that people could agree on a small carbon tax, even if they are otherwise divided about the underlying seriousness of the global warming issue. But once questions are asked how the rate should change over time, views become polarised and agreements breaks down. One side considers carbon dioxide a great threat to the planet and wants a rapid increase in the tax. The other side does not see global warming as a problem, and wants the tax to stay small or disappear altogether. Here is how to give both sides what they want: suppose a small tax on carbon dioxide emissions is introduced and its subsequent evolution is tied in to a suitable measure of atmospheric temperatures. If temperatures go up, so does the tax. If they don't, the tax stays low. Everybody expects to get the policy they prefer, and whoever turns out to be right deserves to win.