Applying log Periodic Power Law to Currency Market Crashes-A Study in Indian Context

摘要

The term volatility has come to be used synonymously with the financial market nowadays. In these critical times of turbulence it is becoming increasingly difficult for the investor to time the market. It is quite often seen that large rise is followed by large falls and small rise by small fall. This is especially more significant in the case of currency markets on which there is global impact of numerous economies and polities. It would be also be of great help if some mechanism is generated to predict an upcoming crash, since it can guide the naieve individual investors who are generally the most affected group in the financial markets. In this paper an attempt has been made for the same using Log Periodic Power Law. Purpose: The study will help the investors to be able to predict currency market movements and act accordingly so that their returns are maximized. Design/Methodology:-Secondary data is used for analysis. Findings:-It appears that log periodicity may be used to predict the movement of Rupee against US Dollar. Implication or Limitation: -Data for a longer period may be taken for better results. Type of Research Paper: -Empirical Paper.