Forecasting Scheme for Swan Coastal River Streamflow Using Combined Model of IOHLN and Nino4

摘要

The study aims to investigate the possible relationship between Nino 4 and Indian Ocean high longitude (IOHLN) with the Swan coastal river flow by constructing a regression model which predict streamflow patterns and which enables to obtain long time lead to forecasting, in a period when there was not much rainfall. Many streamflow forecast models use rainfall and runoff relationship, which is dependent on basin response time and hence cannot provide large forecasting lead time. For water resource management, this lead time of predictability is not capable for a long period of drying trend. Significant findings of this study suggest that Nino 4 and Indian Ocean high pressure longitude (IOHLN) can be used for forecasting of flow in Swan river. In this study not only qualitative forecast of Swan coastal river is presented based on the conditional probability, but also a quantitative forecast is done by combining Nino.4 and IOHLN indices using multiple regression, which shows enhancement over other climate indicators when used alone. The Conditional probability model correctly predict 7 years category of flow out of 8 years flow.