Impact of Synoptic Weather Types on Ground-Level Ozone Concentrations in Guangzhou, China

摘要

Although precursor concentrations were reduced by emission control in Guangzhou, southern China from 2006 to 2016, ground-level O_3 concentrations increased, forming potential risks to human health. This study explored the impacts of large-scale synoptic weather circulations on O_3 concentration in Guangzhou, in a particular focus on high O_3 pollution episodes. Twelve local weather types were clustered based on Lamb-Jenkinson weather types (LWTs). Analyses showed that LWTs strongly impacted daily O_3 concentrations: A, AS, CN, and N+ weather types were likely associated with high ozone concentrations, while the ozone levels were relatively low under C, CE, CS, and S+ types. LWTs could explain 30-40% of the inter-annual variability of O_3 concentration during the dry season. Numerical model simulations further demonstrated that continuous type A weather was the leading LWT correlated with high O_3 concentrations, while type C weather was the predominant type correlated with low O_3 concentrations. CMIP5 model results showed that occurrences of weather type A would increase by about 25% in the high emission scenario over the 2020-2069 period, which might worsen the O_3 pollution in Guangzhou in the future. The increase in frequency weather type A would not be significant under the low emission scenario during the same period. Therefore, we should strictly implement the global emission reduction plan to prevent the change of weather circulation caused by climate change from aggravating ozone pollution in the future. The strong link between O_3 concentrations and LWT frequencies makes the daily occurrence of LWTs a useful predictor for episodes of high O_3 pollution and makes annual frequencies of LWTs good indicators of the inter-annual variability of the O_3 concentration. These results are useful in efforts to predict O_3 concentrations, providing a reliable weather forecast is available.