Alternative Measures to Improve Demand Forecasts

摘要

Real estate appraisers typically rely on an application of economic base theory to generate forecasts of property demand. This article posits that a dynamic version of economic base theory may generate more accurate forecasts in current times when the structures of metro economies are often in great flux. The study examines dynamic measures using statistical analysis to evaluate their forecasting merit. The results indicate the Modified Lilien Index and the Hirschman-Herfindahl Index may be useful indicators for forecasting employment growth. The findings are drawn from recent research supported by The Appraisers Research Foundation.