UK security analysts' idiosyncratic factors and predictive ability

摘要

This is the first study to examine forecasting ability and the impact of UK analysts' idiosyncratic factors (experience, firm coverage and resources). The focus is on a sample of 21084 annual earnings-per-share forecasts made by UK analysts for FTSE-100 companies between 1993 and 1998, derived from the I/B/E/S International database. Consistent with experimental expectations, this study finds that UK analysts' forecasting abilities are a positive function of experience and brokerage house resources, and are negatively related to extreme firm coverage. It also appears that analysts working for larger brokerage houses have greater prior experience and are less likely to have extreme firm-coverage requirements.