Climate-change impacts on electricity demands at a metropolitan scale: A case study of Guangzhou, China

摘要

This study was to quantify the effects of climate change on total electricity consumption (TEC) and residential electricity consumption (REC) at a regional scale, with a case study in Guangzhou, China. The Mann-Kendall test was used to explore the tendency of climate change. The best subset regression analysis was undertaken to develop electricity consumption models, as represented by a number of socioeconomic and climatic variables. The levels of electricity consumption and their variabilities (percentage changes) in 2016 to 2035 (the 2030s), 2046 to 2065 (the 2050s), and 2076 to 2095 (the 2080s) were then calculated under 20 scenario combinations, which were driven by five Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and four Representation Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results revealed that Guangzhou had a significant warming tendency till the end of the 21st century, with an increasing rate of 0.15 - 0.47 degrees C/decade (1986-2099) under four RCPs. With such a warming trend, the increased demand for cooling would lead to the raised electricity consumption. Furthermore, total electricity consumption would be more sensitive to climatic warming than residential electricity consumption. With a raised temperature of 1 degrees C, total electricity consumption would increase by 2.7%, and the residential one would increase by 0.9%. In addition, the projected impacts of climate change on electricity consumption would depend on the emissions of greenhouse gases. In other words, electricity consumption would vary significantly under four RCPs, with the impacts being increased gradually from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5. In the 2080s, total electricity consumption would be 161 TWh under RCP2.6, while the residential one would be 44 TWh. In comparison, under RCP8.5, total electricity consumption would be 171 TWh, while the residential one would be 45 TWh. Under global warming, total electricity consumption would increase by 3.2%-10.4% by 2080s, compared with the baseline period from 1986 to 2005; for residential electricity consumption, the relevant increases would be 1.1%-3.5%.