Values & Rentals To See Modest Improvement In Coming Months Recovery Focussed on Newer Aircraft While Older Types Flounder

摘要

The passenger figures for January from IATA may suggest that the market remains in the doldrums but there are a multitude of positive factors that will see rapid redeployment of at least newer assets in the coming months allowing values and lease rentals a measure of improvement from the deepest point of the catastrophe of nearly a year ago. The market was at its lowest point nearly a year ago when much of the world's fleet were grounded, and revenue passenger kilometers fell from some 700 billion per month to below 50 billion representing a near 95 percent fall. The IATA passenger figures for January 2021 show a fall over previous months as domestic passenger traffic deteriorated due to new containment measures. Compared to January 2020, before the Covid Event took hold outside of China, passenger traffic a year later in January 2021 was still 72 percent lower, comprising an 86 percent reduction for international travel and 47 percent for domestic travel. Even domestic travel in Australia was still 82 percent lower; the U.S. was 60 percent lower; China 34 percent and India 38 percent. International travel in Asia/ Pacific was 95 percent lower. The deterioration in actual traffic contrasts the much greater number of aircraft that are apparently in service. . The issue is therefore one of load factors and this has significant repercussions with respect to the recovery in values and lease rentals. In January 2021, IATA reported that load factors were 54 percent overall with airlines in the U.S. flying aircraft half empty. This compares with pre-Covid load factors in excess of 80 percent. International flights feature load factors of only 45 percent with Asia-Pacific operators experiencing loads of only 33 percent. Aircraft that are in service, particularly widebodies, are more likely to be focused on carrying cargo than passengers. The airlines therefore have considerable passenger seats to fill making it more difficult to bring surplus aircraft back into service en-masse.