A Temporal Markers Framework For Analyzing Atc Operational Errors

摘要

A commonly held view is that system and human vulnerabilities can form links in a chain of events and result in an undesirable outcome. However, this truism has led to only limited success in the development of better techniques to analyze this progression. In this study the evolution of air traffic operational errors (OEs) was of particular interest. While it is generally accepted that OEs evolve over time, the temporal characteristics of OEs have received little attention. By better understanding these temporal characteristics, we will be better able to understand how vulnerabilities become links in a chain so that resources can be allocated effectively to develop mitigation strategies. To better understand how vulnerabilities become links in a chain, two activities were conducted. The first study developed a temporal markers (TMs) definition and sequencing framework. The second study provided an initial assessment of the framework using a small sample of OEs which were readily available in a local archive. Initial results suggest that temporal profiling of OEs may be useful in uncovering trends that are not currently being systematically examined. However, further validation of the framework using a larger set of OEs is required to achieve the goal of developing information that can be routinely used to mitigate OE occurrence.