設備システムの省エネルギー化が不動産価値に与える影響の定量的評価方法に関する研究: 第3報-省エネ投資リスク評価のための確率的執務者行動モデルの開発

摘要

In recent years, the green movement has been sweeping across our society. Some studies provide evidence on the economic value of certifying "green buildings". It is difficult to evaluate the economic value of energy-savings investments without risk quantification. An effective method for risk quantification is the Monte Carlo method. This method pbtains the distribution of an unknown probabilistic entity with repeated random sampling. In this study, a stochastic office worker behavior model was developed with the objective of applying the Monte Carlo method. A web-based questionnaire was employed to obtain extensive data on office workers' behavior. The start and end times of working hours and the lunch break, and the frequency of overtime work and holiday work were obtained from the questionnaire. These phenomena were modeled with probability density functions, and parameters were estimated from the data obtained from questionnaire. Because skewness was observed in histogram analysis, Johnson SU and SB distributions were used as density functions. Finally, all the probability density functions were integrated into a whole day office worker behavior simulation model. The annual mean occupancy was calculated from the model. The results from the model showed good agreement with actual measured data.%本研究の目的は、建築設備シスデムの省エネルギー化が不動産価値に与える影響を定量的に評価する方法を示すことにある。省エネルギー投資の価値を不動産やその他の金融商品との関係性の中で位置づけるためには、省エネルギー投資がもたらすキヤッシュフローの不確実性を定量的に表現する必要がある。このための一つの有力な手段は、モデルの入力条件を確率分布で表現した上で、大量のシミュレーションを繰り返すことで数値計算的に出力の確率分布を求めるモンテカルロ法である。本報ではモンテカルロ法を適用するために、設備のエネルギーシミュレーシヨンの主要な入力条件である執務者行動を確率的に計算する方法を示す。