Forest Ecosystem Sustainable Development Evaluation and Prediction Based on PSR Model

摘要

Sustainable development of forest ecosystem is an important foundation for sustainable social and economic development. Based on PSR model, this study built a comprehensive evaluation index system of sustainable forestry development ecosystem, then quantified the weight of indicators by using entropy method and finally evaluated the level of sustainable forest ecosystem development in China from 2005 to 2013 with the integrated evaluation method. Meanwhile, by calculating the system coordination degree, the paper measured the PSR system coordination and adopted the gray system model GM (1, 1) in predicting the level of sustainable development in the next seven years (2014-2020). The results showed that the level of sustainable forest ecosystem development in China would continue to improve, which would increase from 0.4305 in 2005 to 0.3743 in 2013 with a critical unsustainable status and was also expected to reach the critical sustainable level in 2019.