Rift Valley Fever is a vector-borne disease mainly transmitted by mosquito. To gain some quantitative insights into its dynamics, a deterministic model with mosquito, livestock, and human host is formulated as a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations and analyzed. The disease threshold R0mathcal{R}_0 is computed and used to investigate the local stability of the equilibria. A sensitivity analysis is performed and the most sensitive model parameters to the measure of initial disease transmission R0mathcal{R}_0 and the endemic equilibrium are determined. Both R0mathcal{R}_0 and the disease prevalence in mosquitoes are more sensitive to the natural mosquito death rate, d m . The disease prevalence in livestock and humans are more sensitive to livestock and human recruitment rates, UppilUppi_l and UppihUppi_h, respectively, suggesting isolation of livestock from humans is a viable preventive strategy during an outbreak. Numerical simulations support the analytical results in further exploring theoretically the long-term dynamics of the disease at the population level.
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机译：裂谷热是一种媒介传播的疾病，主要通过蚊子传播。为了获得对其动力学的一些定量见解，将具有蚊子，牲畜和人类宿主的确定性模型公式化为非线性常微分方程组，并进行分析。计算疾病阈值R 0 mathcal {R} _0，并将其用于研究平衡的局部稳定性。进行了敏感性分析，并确定了对初始疾病传播R 0 mathcal {R} _0和地方病平衡的度量最敏感的模型参数。 R 0 数学{R} _0和蚊子的疾病流行率对自然蚊子死亡率d m 更为敏感。牲畜和人类中的疾病流行率对牲畜和人类募集率更敏感，分别为Uppi l Uppi_l和Uppi h Uppi_h，这表明将牲畜与人类隔离是可行的爆发期间的预防策略。数值模拟为进一步从理论上探索该疾病在人群水平上的长期动态提供了分析结果。
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