Integrated assessment modelling as a positive science: private passenger road transport policies to meet a climate target well below 2 ∘C

摘要

Transport generates a large and growing component of global greenhouse gas emissions contributing to climate change. Effective transport emissions reduction policies are needed in order to reach a climate target well below 2 ^∘C. Representations of technology evolution in current integrated assessment models (IAM) make use of systems optimisations that may not always provide sufficient insight on consumer response to realistic policy packages for extensive use in policy-making. Here, we introduce FTT: transport, an evolutionary technology diffusion simulation model for road transport technology, as an IAM sub-component, which features sufficiently realistic features of consumers and of existing technological trajectories that enables to simulate the impact of detailed climate policies in private passenger road transport. Integrated to the simulation-based macroeconometric IAM E3ME-FTT, a plausible scenario of transport decarbonisation is given, defined by a detailed transport policy package, that reaches sufficient emissions reductions to achieve the 2 ^∘C target of the Paris Agreement.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s10584-018-2262-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.