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Factors influencing traffic accident frequencies on urban roads: A spatial panel time-fixed effects error model

机译:影响城市道路交通事故发生频率的因素:空间面板时间固定效应误差模型

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摘要

China's rapid urbanization and high traffic accident frequency have received many researchers’ attention. It is important to reveal how urban infrastructures and other risk factors affects the traffic accident frequency. A growing amount of research has examined the local risk factors impact on traffic accident frequency at certain time. Some studies considered these spatial influences but overlooked the temporal correlation/heterogeneity of traffic accidents and related risk factors. This study explores risk factors’ influence on urban traffic accidents frequency while considering both the spatial and temporal correlation/heterogeneity of traffic accidents. The study area is split into 100 equally sized rectangle traffic analysis zones (TAZs), and the urban traffic accident frequency and attributes in each TAZ are extracted. The linear regression model, spatial lag model (SLM), spatial error model (SEM) and time-fixed effects error model (T-FEEM) are established and compared respectively. The proposed methodologies are illustrated using ten-month traffic accident data from the urban area of Guiyang City, China. The results reveal that the time-fixed effects error model, which considers both spatial and temporal correlation/heterogeneity of traffic accidents, is superior to other models. More traffic accidents will happen in those TAZs that have more hospitals or schools. Moreover, hospitals have a greater influence on traffic accidents than schools. Because of the location in the margin of the city, those TAZs that have passenger stations have more traffic accidents. This study provides policy makers with more detailed characterization about the impact of related risk factors on traffic accident frequencies, and it is suggested that not only the spatial correlation/heterogeneity but also the temporal correlation/heterogeneity should be taken into account in guiding traffic accident control of urban area.
机译:中国快速的城市化进程和交通事故频发已经引起了许多研究人员的关注。重要的是要揭示城市基础设施和其他风险因素如何影响交通事故发生频率。越来越多的研究已经研究了在特定时间影响交通事故发生频率的局部风险因素。一些研究考虑了这些空间影响,但忽略了交通事故的时间相关性/异质性以及相关的风险因素。这项研究探讨了危险因素对城市交通事故发生频率的影响,同时考虑了交通事故的时空相关性/异质性。将研究区域划分为100个大小相等的矩形交通分析区域(TAZ),并提取每个TAZ中的城市交通事故发生频率和属性。建立并比较了线性回归模型,空间滞后模型(SLM),空间误差模型(SEM)和固定效应误差模型(T-FEEM)。利用来自贵阳市市区的十个月的交通事故数据说明了所提出的方法。结果表明,考虑交通事故时空相关性/异质性的时变效应误差模型优于其他模型。在拥有更多医院或学校的TAZ中,将会发生更多的交通事故。而且,医院对交通事故的影响要比学校大。由于位于城市边缘,这些设有客运站的TAZ发生的交通事故更多。这项研究为决策者提供了有关危险因素对交通事故发生频率影响的更详细的表征,建议在指导交通事故控制时,不仅应考虑空间相关性/异质性,还应考虑时间相关性/异质性市区。

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