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Time-varying and asymmetric effects of the oil-specific demand shock on investor sentiment

机译:石油需求波动对投资者情绪的时变和非对称影响

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摘要

The relationship between oil price and investor sentiment is crucial to economic activity. Disentangling the shocks in crude oil price by structural VAR model, this paper analyzes the interaction between oil price shocks and investor sentiment by linear and nonlinear causality approach, TVP-VAR mode and NARDL model. The results reveal that changes of oil-specific demand shock not only linearly but also nonlinearly cause changes of investor sentiment while there is no significant link between other oil shocks (oil supply shock and aggregate demand shock) and investor sentiment. In addition, the study discovers that the oil-specific demand shock generally positively affects investor sentiment over time, and it has positive and asymmetric effects on investor sentiment in the short-run. In other words, it is the negative oil-specific demand shock rather than the positive component that has the significant impact on investor sentiment for short-run. This study could enrich current theories on the interaction between oil price and investor sentiment and serve as a supplement to current literature.
机译:油价与投资者情绪之间的关系对于经济活动至关重要。通过结构VAR模型对原油价格冲击进行了分析,本文采用线性和非线性因果关系法,TVP-VAR模型和NARDL模型分析了原油价格冲击与投资者情绪之间的相互作用。结果表明,石油特定需求冲击的变化不仅线性地而且非线性地引起投资者情绪的变化,而其他石油冲击(石油供应冲击和总需求冲击)与投资者情绪之间没有显着联系。此外,研究发现,随着时间的流逝,特定石油需求冲击通常会对投资者情绪产生积极影响,并且短期内会对投资者情绪产生积极和非对称的影响。换句话说,对石油短期特定需求的负面影响而非正面影响,对投资者短期情绪产生重大影响。这项研究可以丰富有关油价和投资者情绪之间相互作用的现有理论,并可以作为当前文献的补充。

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