【2h】

The Logic of Fashion Cycles

机译:时尚周期的逻辑

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摘要

Many cultural traits exhibit volatile dynamics, commonly dubbed fashions or fads. Here we show that realistic fashion-like dynamics emerge spontaneously if individuals can copy others' preferences for cultural traits as well as traits themselves. We demonstrate this dynamics in simple mathematical models of the diffusion, and subsequent abandonment, of a single cultural trait which individuals may or may not prefer. We then simulate the coevolution between many cultural traits and the associated preferences, reproducing power-law frequency distributions of cultural traits (most traits are adopted by few individuals for a short time, and very few by many for a long time), as well as correlations between the rate of increase and the rate of decrease of traits (traits that increase rapidly in popularity are also abandoned quickly and vice versa). We also establish that alternative theories, that fashions result from individuals signaling their social status, or from individuals randomly copying each other, do not satisfactorily reproduce these empirical observations.
机译:许多文化特征表现出动荡的动态,通常被称为时尚或流行。在这里,我们表明,如果个人可以复制他人对文化特征以及自身特征的偏好,那么逼真的类似时尚的动力就会自发出现。我们在简单的数学模型中证明了这种动态,这种数学模型是个人可能会或可能不会喜欢的单个文化特征的扩散以及随后被抛弃的简单模型。然后,我们模拟了许多文化特征与相关偏好之间的共同进化,再现了文化特征的幂律频率分布(大多数特征在短时间内被少数人采用,而在很长一段时间内被少数人使用)性状的增加率和减少率之间的相关性(流行度迅速增加的性状也很快被放弃,反之亦然)。我们还建立了替代理论,即由个人发出的社会地位信号或相互随机复制的个人导致的流行方式,不能令人满意地再现这些经验性观察。

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