Research on Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster Governance Capabilities in Mainland China Based on Generalized λ-Shapley Choquet Integral

摘要

According to the United Nations report, climate disasters have intensified in the past 20 years, and China has the largest number of disasters in the world. So the study of meteorological disaster governance capacities is critically important for China. We designed a meteorological disaster governance capacity evaluation system to calculate the evaluation values by using the generalized λ-Shapley Choquet integral, a method that considers the interaction between indicators. We used various official statistical yearbooks and internal data of China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and weight intervals set by meteorologists for each level of indicators to calculate the evaluation values of meteorological disaster governance capacity in mainland provinces, from 2014 to 2018. We compared them with other methods (entropy weight method, Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)), and the results showed that the results calculated by the designed interaction method provided in this paper are more stable and differentiated. The results show that provincial meteorological disaster governance capacities in Mainland China are characterized by uneven development and a pro-slight polarization phenomenon. This leads to policy recommendations: Provinces should strengthen the construction of meteorological disaster information; provinces with outstanding capacity must strengthen the experience sharing with provinces with lower capacity.